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A new analysis of tests conducted at the UW Medicine Virology lab adds to the evidence that Washington is bending the curve on the novel coronavirus epidemic.

The percentage of specimens positive for the virus appears to have peaked on March 28 and has been trending downward ever since. If the trend continues, the rate of positive tests could drop below 2% by late April and — potentially — below 1% by mid-May. But reaching such low levels is dependent on maintaining the current level of social distancing.

“Our data indicate a true bending of the curve in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Seattle area and the state of Washington,” says  from researchers at the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.