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An influential model predicting outcomes of COVID-19 cases in terms of peaks and deaths updated its numbers Monday to reflect an upwardly moving death toll for the nation.

, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent health research center at the University of Washington, wrote, “We, collectively, are now entering a new phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Our updated modeling approach indicates that the US appears to be in a prolonged epidemic peak, averaging near or over 2,000 predicted COVID-19 deaths a day for the last few weeks.”